In a stunning development, a coalition of terrorist rebel forces, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has seized control of Damascus, the Syrian capital, in less than two weeks following a surprise offensive launched from northern Syria. HTS, designated as an Islamist terrorist organisation by the United Nations, United States, United Kingdom, European Union, Russia, Turkey, and other nations, now leads a coalition that controls nearly all of Syria’s major cities, except those in the Latakia Governorate. Latakia, situated on Syria’s Mediterranean coast, remains the last stronghold of the Assad regime and hosts a strategically vital Russian naval and airbase, which is currently being evacuated under heavy pressure from advancing rebel forces. The collapse of Assad’s government and the rise of extremist groups in Syria is poised to send shockwaves through Europe and Russia, with fears of increased instability, a renewed refugee crisis, and potential threats to international security.

Who is Bashar Al Assasd?

Bashar al-Assad is the President of Syria, a position he has held since July 2000, succeeding his father, Hafez al-Assad, who ruled the country for nearly three decades. Initially trained as an ophthalmologist in Damascus and later in London, Bashar was not the original heir to power; his elder brother, Basil, was groomed for leadership but died in a car accident in 1994, thrusting Bashar into the political spotlight. Upon his father’s death, the Syrian parliament lowered the minimum age for the presidency, enabling Bashar, then 34, to assume power.

His early presidency was marked by promises of reform, known as the “Damascus Spring,” but hopes for liberalisation were quickly quashed as his government reverted to authoritarian practices. Under his rule, Syria’s political system has been dominated by the Ba’ath Party, which emphasizes Arab nationalism and socialism, with power heavily concentrated in the Assad family and its Alawite minority network. His wife, Asma al-Assad, a British-born former banker, has also played a prominent public role. Bashar’s presidency became internationally notorious after the 2011 Arab Spring, when peaceful protests demanding democratic reforms were met with violent repression, leading to a devastating civil war.

The civil war has killed hundreds of thousands, displaced millions, and turned Syria into a proxy battleground for regional and global powers, with Assad relying on support from Russia and Iran to maintain his grip on power. His regime has been accused of widespread human rights violations, including the use of chemical weapons, targeting civilians, and suppressing dissent with brutal force.

Who is in Syria?

Syrian National Army (SNA) – operates in northern Syria near the Turkish border, is supported by Turkey, and promotes a Sunni Islamist-nationalist agenda.

Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), are a Kurdish-led group, in the north-east, with significant Arab participation, controls large swathes of territory and advocates for secularism and autonomy; they are backed by the United States.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a former al-Qaeda affiliate, dominates Idlib province and holds a hardline Sunni Islamist ideology, receiving indirect support from Gulf donors.

Islamic State (ISIS), a radical jihadist group, persists in scattered desert areas; they lack formal state sponsors.

The United States maintains a military presence in eastern Syria, working with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to combat ISIS remnants/ stop resurgence of ISIS, secure oil fields, and counter Iranian influence. However, Tensions persist with Turkey over Kurdish alliances.

What does this mean for Europe?

The fall of Damascus raises serious implications for Europe, particularly concerning immigration and security. With Syria now largely controlled by extremist groups, the likelihood of renewed conflict and instability will further exacerbate the refugee crisis. During President Assad’s reign, he held little tolerance for radical Islamist ideologies, preventing the spread of it in Syria. Millions of Syrians have already displaced themselves internally and may seek safety in Europe, which could further strain immigration systems and potentially allow Syrian terrorist organisations to infiltrate Europe.

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